Jefferson County has long had the reputation as being a bellwether in elections, and residents can expect to hear and see a lot from local, state and national candidates as Election Day nears.
"Jeffco has one of the most diverse voting populations in our state," said Don Ytterberg, chairman of the Jefferson County Republican Party. "You have chunks of the mountains and foothills on the west side, and more urban areas on the east side of Arvada and Lakewood, as well as Edgewater."
With roughly 566,000 residents --; about one-tenth of the entire population of the state --; Jefferson is the fourth most populous county in Colorado. It can be said to be a purple county, in which there are a relatively even number of Democrats, often identified as blue, and Republicans, often identified as red, generally with a high number of unaffiliated voters.
Among active registered voters in the county as of Aug. 1, there were 111,374 Republicans, 109,140 Democrats and 128,938 unaffiliated voters, according to the Colorado Secretary of State's Office.
Colorado has been very important in the past couple elections, not only to the presidential races, but in the U.S. Senate and House contests, because it was unclear which way the state as a whole would go, said John Straayer, a political science professor at Colorado State University in Fort Collins. Straayer's concentration is Colorado and legislative politics.
This year, he noted, the mystery might be gone when it comes to the presidential race.
"Everything I'm seeing shows Colorado leaning pretty heavily in favor of the Democrats," he said. "I look at voter registration data from August 2012 to where we are now, and there's an increase of about 22,000 Democrats in Jefferson County, and 10,000 Republicans."
Still, the Jefferson County Clerk and Recorder's Office currently shows roughly 2,000 more active Republican voters than Democrats.
Voter registration for most of the metro area is strongly in favor of one party or another: Denver is a stronghold for Democrats, Douglas for Republicans. It's closer in Adams County, but its registration figures lean heavily in favor of Democrats.
Jefferson and neighboring Arapahoe, the state's third most populous county, are the only two with fairly even distributions of Republicans, Democrats and unaffiliated voters. In both swing counties, Straayer sees more Democrats getting registered than Republicans.
"If you look at the past seven years in Jeffco, it fits a pattern," he said. "You can see the county and state moving slowly from red to pink to purple to blue."
As of Aug. 1, Republicans maintained a 964,738 to 953,042 edge among active registered voters in Colorado. Unaffiliated voters outnumbered them both, with slightly more than a million among their ranks.
Looking at the same nearly four-year period, Straayer said Democrats are seeing an increase in younger people and women, while Republicans' advantage is mostly in residents 70 years old and older.
"It's not a stampede, but a drip drip drip," he said. "The younger generation on both sides is almost more libertarian --; they take the live-and-let-live approach on social issues."
This change in demographics won't win the election for any one candidate or party immediately, Straayer added, but is reflective of a change in attitudes.
Jeffco's voting history
In the past four presidential elections, beginning in 2000, Jefferson County has voted with the winners --; George W. Bush and Barack Obama.
Democrats in Jeffco have seen many successes over the past several years, said Cheryl Cheney, chair of the county's Democratic Party.
"We're very lucky to have a strong Democrat base spread throughout the area," she said. "We have a big ground game that includes a lot of getting out in the community."
Congressman Ed Perlmutter of Golden is one such Democrat who has received support from Jeffco residents. The 7th Congressional District representative was first elected to the state Senate in 1994 - the first Democrat elected to the position in 30 years - and served until 2003. In 2006, he won his first race for Congress, and he won the four elections following. He's running againstRepublican George Athanasopoulos this November.
But Republican leaders like Ytterberg and Steve House, chair of the Colorado Republican Party, say they're touting some great candidates who will get the base excited.
"We rely on voter data as much as possible, and engage with people very tactically," House said. "We had a great year in 2014, and with the increase in unaffiliated voters, we're going to do well again."
Republicans are pleased with the work done by incumbents Laura Woods, state senator in Arvada's District 19, and Jefferson County Commissioner Libby Szabo. They are looking to challenge incumbent Democratic U.S. Rep. Jared Polis in the 2nd Congressional District with Nic Morse.
A charged presidential election
Particularly divisive presidential campaigns by Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton make 2016 very interesting, Straayer said. What he describes as the Donald Trump phenomenon could have a big impact on voter turnout numbers.
"Trump has a hard-core base that is going to vote for him, almost no matter what he does," he said. "Then there are Republicans who don't like Trump and have such a visceral dislike of Hillary Clinton that they may just not vote."
The Democrats also face the challenge of bringing supporters of Bernie Sanders in line after a contentious primary season.
"We're taking a lot of lessons from 2008 and finding ways to work on the situation," Cheney said. "We understand people don't always have the same opinion on candidates, but we're not seeing a big decrease in involvement."
Both parties had presences at many of Jeffco's summer events, like Wheat Ridge's Carnation Festival and the Jeffco County Fair to register voters and spread the word about their candidates.
"The best part of the process is getting out there and talking to people," Ytterberg said. "It's a change to really engage with voters, and help make a choice."
from Lakewood Sentinel - Latest Stories http://lakewoodsentinel.com/stories/Jeffco-may-be-site-of-close-political-fight,234506
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