Saturday, April 30, 2022

COVID Treatment Paxlovid Fails to Prevent Infection of Household Members 

Pfizer Inc. on Friday said a large trial found that its COVID-19 oral antiviral treatment Paxlovid was not effective at preventing coronavirus infection in people living with someone infected with the virus.

The trial enrolled 3,000 adults who were household contacts exposed to an individual who was experiencing symptoms and had recently tested positive for COVID-19. They were given either Paxlovid for five or 10 days or a placebo.

Those who took the five-day course were found to be 32% less likely to become infected than the placebo group. That rose to 37% with 10 days of Paxlovid. However, the results were not statistically significant and thus possibly due to chance.

Pfizer said safety data in the trial was consistent with that of previous studies, which had shown the pills to be nearly 90% effective at preventing hospitalization or death in COVID-19 patients at high risk of severe illness when taken for five days shortly after symptom onset.

“While we are disappointed in the outcome of this particular study, these results do not impact the strong efficacy and safety data we’ve observed in our earlier trial for the treatment of COVID-19 patients,” Pfizer Chief Executive Albert Bourla said in a statement.

Pfizer said Paxlovid, which consists of two different antiviral drugs, is currently approved or authorized for conditional or emergency use in more than 60 countries to treat high-risk COVID-19 patients.

Sales of Paxlovid, part of a class of drugs known as protease inhibitors, are projected to reach $24 billion this year, according to Wall Street forecasts compiled by Refinitiv.

Shares of Pfizer, which fell 3% in regular trading, were down another 1%, at $48.53, after hours.

News.... browse around here



Trading News: https://cryptojizz.net/nexalin-seeks-10m-in-ipo-for-neuro-devices-to-treat-anxiety-insomnia-pendingnxl/

Exciting Finds: http://nysbar.com/blogs/EASL/2021/12/theater_news_for_the_week_endi_2.html

Stay up to date on China: https://www.chinapulse.com/data-news/2021/03/19/chinese-self-driving-startup-momenta-raises-500-million-from-saic-motor-toyota-motor-bosch-and-others-reuters/




Houston headlines


https://www.nucondo.ca/amfvp/when-is-seabrook-nuclear-plant-closing.html

Beijing Tightens COVID Restrictions as Long Holiday Begins


Beijing residents will need clear COVID tests to enter public spaces, officials said Saturday, announcing fresh virus controls at the start of a Labor Day holiday muted by creeping infections in the capital.

The five-day break is typically one of China’s busiest travel periods, but the country’s worst COVID resurgence since early in the pandemic is expected to keep people home.

Faced with the highly transmissible omicron variant, Chinese officials have doubled down on their zero-COVID policy, quashing virus clusters through mass testing and lockdowns.

Despite mounting economic costs and public frustration, the capital city announced it would further restrict access to public spaces after the holiday period.

Starting May 5, a negative COVID test taken within the past week will be needed to enter “all kinds of public areas and to take public transport,” according to a notice on the city’s official WeChat page.

For activities such as sporting events and group travel, participants will also need to show a negative COVID test taken within 48 hours, along with proof of “full vaccination,” according to the new rules.

China reported more than 10,700 domestic COVID cases on Saturday, with most in economic engine Shanghai.

The eastern metropolis has been sealed off for around a month after becoming the epicenter of the latest outbreak.

Cases are trending downwards, yet frustration and anger is boiling in the city of 25 million where many have been ordered to stay at home for several weeks.

Shanghai officials said on Saturday that its new cases were all found among quarantined or restricted groups — signaling that community infections could be slowing.

They added that hundreds of companies on a “whitelist” have resumed work, with around 1,000 firms allowed to restart operations too, state media said.

In Beijing, cases nudged up to 54, according to the National Health Commission.

As the long holiday started, consumers in the capital were asked to show proof of negative COVID tests — from within 48 hours — to enter public areas such as malls, shops and scenic spots.

The city will make COVID testing free for residents starting Tuesday, authorities said.

News.... browse around here



Trading News: https://jarrod7074lenny.bloggersdelight.dk/2021/01/06/required-a-chiropractic-physician-take-a-look-at-these-top-tips-prior-to-you-go/

Exciting Finds: https://www.cnnindonesia.com/teknologi/20211007164948-199-704816/bocah-as-temukan-fosil-diduga-gigi-naga-usia-12-ribu-tahun

Stay up to date on China: https://www.chinapulse.com/data-news/2021/01/13/chinese-face-recognition-unicorn-megvii-prepares-for-ipo-in-china-techcrunch/




News update


https://m.newsreview.uk/2021/10/this-museum-show-features-the-most-dangerous-toys-ever-and-asks-if-modern-childhood-is-risky-enough-forbes/

Foreign Businesses Consider Leaving China Amid Lockdowns


Chris Mei has been stuck in his Shanghai flat for a month save for PCR testing and occasional volunteer work delivering food to neighbors. That will change in a couple of days when he boards his flight for a long-scheduled trip home to Portland, Oregon.

He uses Zoom to do factory inspections for his 2-year-old import-export firm, Shanghai Fanyi Industry, but he can’t complete all the orders for clients overseas. He’s locked down like most of the 26 million people in the city, along with some of the factories where he normally sources goods, such as artificial plants and solar lights.

“In terms of how’s business, it’s definitely affected us,” Mei said. “Clients abroad always have deadlines, especially for some of our products.” He continued, “For example, for a shipment that recently went out, we had a portion of the order canceled due to the fact that the factory, they were on lockdown as well, so we basically could only produce what they could, and then the remaining part of the order basically passed the client’s deadline in South America.”

Leaving a city in lockdown has become an expensive, multistep process. Mei, a U.S. citizen, applied for permission to leave Shanghai by getting a pass from his neighborhood committee. He then found a driver with special permission to take him to the airport during lockdown – for about six times the usual price of that ride.

Shanghai’s residents have been ordered to stay home since early April in response to a spike in COVID-19 infections. Last week, authorities began easing restrictions in parts of the city to restore economic activity.

Mei’s case is typical, analysts who follow China say. Large numbers of foreign businesspeople in China are planning on leaving the country, for now or for good. The lockdowns have hammered an economy already hobbled by the 4-year-old Sino-U.S. trade dispute, capital outflows and last year’s crackdown on tech giants.

On March 18, That’s Shanghai, a local magazine, reported the results of an online survey saying 85% of foreigners in the city would “rethink their future in China” because of the lockdowns. The survey found that 48% of respondents plan to leave China over the next year and that 37% would wait in case anti-pandemic measures improve.

Risk seems to be increasing

Shipments through seaports in Shanghai and the Chinese tech hub Shenzhen, which locked down in March, have slowed because of a lack of workers and a shortage of truckers who are allowed to move imports and exports around the country.

Larger businesses can afford to wait in case lockdowns ease and China resumes its robust economic growth, said Doug Barry, communications vice president with the U.S.-China Business Council, a 265-member advocacy group in Washington.

Smaller companies are having more trouble because they depend on China’s advanced contract manufacturing ecosystem and cannot easily relocate, Barry said. He said some businesses have closed temporarily because so many workers can’t report to their jobs.

Others have spent money to help feed workers and even let them stay overnight at workplaces so they can report to their jobs the next day.

Overseas-based company leaders are staying away from their China projects because of quarantine rules, he said.

“Business in some cases has come to a complete stop,” Barry said. “The risk seems to be increasing, and the unknowns are also increasing and you’re looking at bottom lines and the future of things, and you’re wondering what to do.”

While foreign businesspeople are thinking of leaving, the significance of China to outside companies can be seen in the numbers. Foreign businesses invested $173.5 billion in China last year, up from $163 billion in 2020 and $140 billion a year earlier, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development’s latest report.

Just more than 1 million foreign companies were registered in China at the end of 2020.

Companies normally relocate in China for contract manufacturing – which is seen as professional yet inexpensive – or to sell cars, coffee, phones and fashion apparel to the massive consumer market.

Incentives to stay

Mei will be back in Shanghai after a couple of months at home. By then, he expects there will be a “more solid” response to COVID-19 with clarity about people’s mobility.

Some people he knows have been called back to work in May, he said.

William Frazier, a 58-year-old U.S.-born owner of a business advisory firm in Shanghai, has lived in the city continuously since 2002. He has no plans to leave the city even though he’s been locked down since March 16. Frazier has a spacious flat in a high-end compound, making life tolerable as he works though emails, phone and video conferences. The economic chaos has caused more clients to call him for information.

“No real significant impact, I would say, not for me,” Frazier said. “I don’t see hiccups. I see opportunities.”

Local officials in China want foreign investors to stay in the country, the U.S.-China Business Council has found. They are willing to meet and hear out American businesspeople, Barry said, though no government body has offered them any economic stimulus.

Sticking around will keep companies competitive after China returns to normal, he said.

If lockdowns in Shanghai end in May, more businesspeople are likely to stay in the city, said Yan Liang, professor and chair of economics at Willamette University in Salem, Oregon. Local and central government policymakers have the economic aftershocks of COVID-19 “on their radar,” she said.

“It’s just so important to be able to have a foothold in a large market like this,” Liang said. “And I think some of the sentiments (are) also that even though there are some maybe temporary or maybe more permanent slowdowns, the Chinese economy is still a really bright spot when you compare with other countries in the world.”

That makes the lure of the largest market in the world worth waiting for, for businesses that can afford to hold out until cities open again.

[NDN/ccn/comedia Links]

News.... browse around here



Trading News: https://topplantgroundworks.com/xxseem/actors-who-are-taller-than-you-think.html

Exciting Finds: https://www.cnnindonesia.com/teknologi/20211007164948-199-704816/bocah-as-temukan-fosil-diduga-gigi-naga-usia-12-ribu-tahun

Stay up to date on China: https://www.chinapulse.com/data-news/2021/03/11/sign-up-facebook-withdraws-from-its-marine-fiber-project-in-hong-kong-the-americas-amid-us-pressure-after-the-pacific-light-cable-network-was-suspended-in-august-wall-street-journal/




Updates Houston


https://www.kimm.re.kr/eng/sub0110/index/page/6

Friday, April 29, 2022

Abortion Drugs Fundamental to Ancient Economies, Argues Historian


As women’s rights to make reproductive choices come under assault, historian John M. Riddle argues that abortion has been far more essential to human history than you might imagine.

Throughout the ages, abortion has been a crucial feature of women’s lives. So argues John M. Riddle, a distinguished specialist in the history of medicine, who has spent a long career uncovering information nearly lost in the mists of time. His work shows that people going all the way back to ancient Egypt relied on a variety of herbal abortifacients (abortion-inducing substances) and contraceptives to control fertility and continued doing so well into the Middle Ages. What’s more, he argues that contrary to what many historians and demographers have maintained, these ancient drugs actually worked.

In “Eve’s Herbs: A History of Contraception and Abortion in the West,” Riddle posits that while we may think of ancient and medieval people as superstitious and prone to rely on useless remedies, when it came to abortion, many knew what they were doing.

The historian illustrates how their methods, most commonly drugs taken orally, were developed through careful observation of nature (noticing, for example, which plants caused livestock to bear fewer offspring), experimentation, and the accumulation of botanical knowledge passed down by word-of-mouth, and also occasionally in written form, including a text by a thirteenth-century physician, Peter of Spain, who later became Pope John XXI!

These botanical substances blocked or stimulated hormones, caused contractions, or otherwise acted on the body to prevent or end pregnancies, thus enabling women and their families to make reproductive choices in their best interest. Riddle points out that it wasn’t just elites who knew the secrets of which herbs to use and how—common people knew and purposefully regulated family size for a variety of reasons, including the desire to space out children, economic pressures, and the health of the mother.

As Riddle details, the Egyptians listed abortifacients in medical texts. The Greeks were so accustomed to abortion drugs that the playwright Aristophanes joked about them, describing in Lysistrata a desirable young woman “trimmed and spruced with pennyroyal,” a well-known abortion drug. Riddle holds that the plant silphium (related to fennel) was popular with the Greeks and Romans primarily because it was used to terminate pregnancies – so much so that the city-state of Cyrene (in modern-day Libya) based its whole economy on the plant until it was overharvested to extinction. His research reveals that in the Middle Ages, abortion drugs were also integral to economies. The typical European village would have employed a “wise woman” or midwife, and later, an apothecary, who knew exactly what herbal remedies to give women who did not wish to be pregnant and could produce reliable results. Through such fertility intervention, he says, family size was managed in ways that may well have impacted whole populations, causing some government officials associating large families with economic prosperity to view women who controlled fertility as potential enemies of the state.

Riddle shows that what was once widely known and tolerated came under increased scrutiny as the Middle Ages gave way to the Early Modern period. Eventually, he explains, female experts in botanicals fell under suspicion of witchcraft, and their persecution served to eliminate or dilute knowledge of herbal abortifacients. As these women were pushed out of reproductive healthcare, those remaining, along with physicians and apothecaries who competed with them for business (and often knew far less about abortion and contraception), began to deal with abortifacient drugs through circumlocutions and evasions, noting that a particular drug “brought down the courses” or “aired the womb,” expecting female clients to know what they meant. In time, Riddle argues, knowledge of effective antifertility agents was lost through centuries of laws, religious doctrine, changing social mores, and witch hunts. By the late nineteenth century, a woman in New York or London might have to rely on purchasing nostrums advertised by unknown parties in newspapers rather than going to a trusted family member or midwife for assistance. Yet before the pill and legalized abortion, and even after, Riddle describes how women in many parts of the word, including Appalachia, continued to use botanicals to control fertility.

Riddle is convinced by his research that drugs that check fertility have shaped human history in ways that are not fully appreciated. Today, as women in America and elsewhere fall under attack for trying to do what their foremothers were long able to do, some in favor of restrictions argue that they are following ancient precepts, such as the Hippocratic oath. But according to Riddle and others, they are engaging in revisionist history, often unknowingly.

Riddle recently spoke to the Institute for New Economic Thinking about what we know of abortion in ancient societies and how we know it.

Lynn Parramore: Your work shows that abortifacient plants were fundamental to ancient economies. Why were they so important? And how do we know these herbal treatments worked?

John Riddle: Why shouldn’t they be important? There’s nothing more fundamental to human society than reproduction -- or lack thereof.

How do we know they worked? Let me tell you about a sixth-century man whose Latin name was Germanus, a Gallo Roman in central France who became a saint. He became bishop of Paris and is buried at the abbey Saint-Germain-des-PrĂ©s, named after him. His biography, recorded in a life of saints, states that his mother had a number of children, and when she became pregnant again, decided that she didn’t want another one just then. It was a matter of spacing with her. So she got a “poison” and she took it. After she took it her insides were in turmoil and she had pain, which extended for a period of time. But finally Germanus was born, and seeing such a lovely baby and so forth, she said she had made a mistake. There is a question with saints that you can’t be one unless you produce miracles. Well, his miracle happened when he was a fetus – the first fetal miracle!

To me, this story of Saint Germain challenges people who have said that ancient abortions couldn’t have worked. It’s actually the reverse – it took a miracle to prevent them from working! People were accustomed to abortifacients being effective.

LP: Let’s talk about Cyrene, the Greek city-state. You have argued that its economy was based entirely on an abortifacient plant called silphium, so highly coveted that it was eventually over-harvested and went extinct. What’s the evidence, in your view, that its popularity was based on its use as an abortion-inducing drug?

JR: Silphium was very basic in its association to the city of Cyrene. After I got interested in the plant, I started researching beyond the literary accounts, of which there are a number. I found a big volume on ancient Greek coins in the British Museum, and the coins of Cyrene take up a big section. Every one of them has silphium – this extended for three centuries. I found no reference to it as a food. There’s a plant that’s related to it botanically that gives Worcestershire sauce its distinctive aroma, but that’s modern.

LP: And the high demand was because so many sought to use it to manage fertility?

JR: I’m as certain of it as anything one can be certain of in the ancient world. In one play, Aristophanes talks about its high price, and much later, Pliny notes that silphium is worth its weight in silver – a span of 300 years. Others referenced its use as an abortifacient. There’s no other purpose for it. They didn’t have Worcestershire sauce, and it’s too expensive to be used as a food.

LP: Just recently, an article in the Washington Times asked if health professionals who follow the Hippocratic oath should have to perform abortions. Let’s talk about this oath, which contains a prohibition on using a pessary (a vaginal insert) to induce abortion. You observe that translators often changed the meaning to suggest a prohibition against all methods of abortion, not just pessaries, and note that in the modern era, people have misunderstood who wrote the oath and how it was used. How did the oath come to be taken by modern physicians as a moral charge not to perform abortions?

JR: I learned a lot tracing that down. The Hippocratic oath was not taken as an oath by most physicians in antiquity. There’s no reference to it and there are few copies. Copies in the Middle Ages developed the notion that ancient physicians had to abide by it. Actually, it was not until the late nineteenth century that some medical schools required it. Classical scholars then did not know that ancient people had effective birth control methods other than pessaries – that they used drugs. A friend of mine at the University of Pittsburgh and another colleague found that 100% of medical schools use the oath today; some pass around a printed copy at graduation and say that students are bound to it while others make the students stand up and take the oath. But that’s a modern development.

When Roe v. Wade was first argued, the question of the oath came up. This is where it gets intriguing to me: [Dallas County District Attorney] Wade said we can’t allow abortions because physicians are bound to the oath and the oath doesn’t allow it. But someone at the Supreme Court, directly or indirectly, asked classicist Ludwig Edelstein at Johns Hopkins if that was true. He wrote an article, which was published, arguing that it wasn’t an oath in antiquity.

LP: You note that the oath wasn’t even written by Hippocrates, nor were medical texts generally ascribed to him.

JR: Yes, we’ve given up on that. Hippocrates is like Santa Claus. I think what happened, and this is conjectural, is that the librarians at Alexandria made a concerted effort to get anything that had been written in Greek. Treatises came from all over, and anything medical was ascribed to Hippocrates. So at that point, medical treatises become associated with Hippocrates.

LP: The oath referred only to a prohibition on pessaries to induce abortion, but you point out that this was not the most common way of ending a pregnancy. Does that imply that the more common form of abortion, induced by drugs, would have been permitted?

JR: Abortion by pessary was absolutely not the most common method. The part about pessaries was not stated for ethical reasons, but for medical reasons, because pessaries could cause ulcerations and didn’t work that well. Translations later change the meaning to a total ban. Even Edelstein messed up on that. He used a more general term, something like “abortative remedy,” instead of “pessary.”

LP: So we ended up with the misguided idea that the Greeks prohibited abortion, which has fueled restrictive attitudes in the present day.

JR: That’s right.

LP: You do note that the Greeks and even more so, the Romans, had some misgivings about abortion as it concerned male property rights since the fetus was assumed to be the property of the father. You show that later, Christian theologians began building on the male property-rights anxiety and adding concern about when the soul entered the fetus and promoting prohibitions against abortion after “quickening.” Physicians, lawmakers, and theologians began to demand restrictions, but what about ordinary people? How did they view it?

JR: They absolutely had a much higher degree of tolerance for contraception and abortion. Keep in mind, it all gets murky, but early-term abortion was not really considered to impact a living fetus, even among theologians. There was the concept of quickening, which was thought to occur when a woman could feel the fetus kicking.

LP: Let’s say I’m a thirteenth-century English peasant woman who is pregnant but doesn’t want to carry the pregnancy to term because I have too many kids to feed already. How do I go about this? Who do I consult?

JR: You would have talked to people you trusted—a mother, an aunt, women in the village, and above all, the midwife. The transmission of the knowledge, I think, is more oral than it is written. I found very few cases in the Middle Ages or the early modern period where they go and consult a book.

LP: And I would have a pretty high expectation that the remedies indicated would work?

JR: Yes.

LP: If, as you argue, the limiting of family size through abortion drugs was common, how do demographers view the role of abortion in populations?

JR: Therein is a swamp. Two demographers of good standing said that abortions could not have worked to the level that affected gross population. However, since then, I found two demographers with different findings. One of them wrote a long article on demography in Spain in the nineteenth and early twentieth century, when Spain’s population is going down. He goes into the reasons, one by one, as to what could have caused it. Economic depression? No, Spain was not different from other places that were reasonably prosperous, and there were no widespread famines, which will reduce populations. So he concludes that the only possible reason for a steady, century-old decline was birth control (which includes the use of abortifacients). The thing that is so logical to me is that the placebo effect just doesn’t work in the case of pregnancy. If your peasant woman in the village is given a remedy to restart her menstrual cycle so that she will not have a baby – if she has the baby, then she knows the remedy doesn’t work in a very, very real way. It’s self-correcting. The midwife giving the abortion remedy that didn’t work wouldn’t be able to stay in business -- not very long in that village. She might get by with one failure, but not two.

LP: We’ve talked about how important abortifacients were to ancient economies, what about the medieval period? How do we know they were fundamental?

JR: In the late Middle Ages, German towns forbade the growing or possession of juniper, which was used by midwives to control fertility. To have the knowledge of using juniper for that purpose would make you suspected to be a witch. I wrote to several people when I was researching juniper in the history of pharmacy and asked if they could think of any other time period where a government agency had prohibited possession of a substance, and they couldn’t. So it must have been very important.

Two German researchers published work concluding that whenever there was an area where there were virulent witch hunts, that area had big increases in population. They concluded that the burning of what were often called “wise women,” who were midwives, had something to do with this rise in population.

LP: The common wisdom was that abortion was not a criminal offense, despite theologians and the bishops sometimes pushing for it, right?

JR: That’s right. I’ve read two recent works – one is by a researcher at Ohio State who just got through studying legal assizes in England where there was an abortion case, and like me, she never found a jury that convicted a woman. The jury found all kinds of excuses. One was where the baby was born but died five days later, which was attributed to poison the mother had taken. She was up for homicide, but the jury wouldn’t do it.

LP: If you were a medieval woman operating as an herbalist, consulting on abortions and contraception, you might have a thriving business and some economic independence. In times of economic turmoil, was the persecution of women for witchcraft a convenient way to bring the economy back into the hands of men?

JR: It’s terrible to think of men doing that, but they do. Men have the notion that they have the power to reproduce, and they don’t want that power taken away from them. They associate that power with the economy and the well-being of the community.

LP: And yet prohibiting the management of fertility actually has negative consequences to the community.

JR: Yes, that is correct.

LP: Do you see the motivations of women to control fertility consistent throughout history?

JR: There’s no way to deal with it statistically. You just have to extrapolate the factors that you think would be at work, other than the occasional individual. Spacing has to account for some of it – just like Germanus’s mother. We’re dealing with human nature here. The motives should the same in antiquity, the Middle Ages, and the present.

Why is it that in the United States that it tends to become associated with politics? Some states outlawing abortion and others not? From the point of view of jurisprudence, the thing that comes into play in Roe v. Wade was that she (Roe) wanted an abortion but couldn’t get one because she couldn’t afford it. Why should one person have a right in a state and another not? The question becomes economic.

On the question of when life begins, there is so much that isn’t measurable. If you’re going to talk about life beginning at conception, well, is it when the sperm enters the egg? One of the various stages after that? Implantation? Would Queen Anne’s lace, the seeds of which women have used after coitus to control fertility, be considered an abortifacient?

LP: We know from history that women desperate to end a pregnancy will try anything. Do you see vitamin supplement hawkers and dubious vendors on the internet capitalizing on the new restrictions and the distrust of mainstream medicine to promote botanical abortions? You note that a person today would be ill-advised to try this because there are so many factors involved in the efficacy of plants for this purpose -- when they’re harvested, how extracted, the dosage, the frequency, etc., and that without precise knowledge of toxicity levels, they can be dangerous.

JR: I don’t doubt that people will try to sell herbal remedies for fertility control. A vendor in California had a website and it began with a quote, “Dr. Riddle says…” It was a quote lifted out of context which purported to show that whatever herb they were promoting worked. I’m a Ph.D. in history, not an MD. I ask legal consultants if I had any legal remedy, and they said that because the quote was accurate, I didn’t.

The first book I published was on the Greek physician Dioscorides’ herbal treatise, and I decided I’d put in the frontispiece a warning that the discussions about the medical use of plants and other substances are purely for historical examination. The same goes for my book on contraceptives and abortion in history. Some people think that they need “natural remedies,” but the body doesn’t know whether it’s natural or not. All it knows are molecules. And it doesn’t make any difference where the molecule comes from.

I don’t know if the lawmakers in Texas, or the people who support them, have thought through the implications of what they’re doing. It’s obvious to me that the educators of the general public are going to have to be journalists.

LP: Does it surprise you, given your historical perspective, where we are today on this topic? It would seem that history is not linear.

JR: Yes I am surprised. I thought Roe v. Wade was rightly decided, and I didn’t think it would be reversed. You could have a district attorney, a prosecutor responsible for a large area, marshaling a whole force of law enforcement on this.

As you say, history is not linear. We can regress, and we do, in so many different ways.


Read More

What Really Drives Long-Term Interest Rates?


Contrary to the neoclassical loanable funds theory, historical bond yields show Keynes was right that “convictions” anchor long-term interest rates

Most of the empirical literature on long-term interest rate determination – at least, the neoclassical literature – is based on the old loanable funds theory. That theory states that interest rates are determined by the supply of and demand for loanable funds. Since the pool of loanable funds is fixed, an exogenous increase in demand – say, from a government spending program backed by bond issuance – will lead to higher interest rates.

The alternative theory is the Keynesian one. Keynes held to an expectations-based theory of interest rate determination. He believed that long-term interest rates represented market-expected short-term interest rates projected into the future – a “highly psychological phenomenon,” as Keynes wrote. How do markets come to estimates of future short-term interest rates? Keynes argued that they arrived at them through ‘convention.’ By ‘convention’ he meant just that – whatever markets think that markets should think.

Just what sets this convention has changed through time. In Britain, after the country returned to the gold standard in 1821, the market for Consols – that is, perpetual bonds – settled into a long period of calm. Even though inflation was highly volatile in this period and even though the Bank of England did not intervene in the Consuls market with a view toward stabilizing rates, the yield on Consols never exceeded 4% or fell below 3%. The table below compares British Consol yields in this period and British inflation with 30-year United States Treasury yields and inflation since 1977.

Standard Deviation

Inflation Beta

(Bonds:Inflation)

Max

Min

Consul Yields 1822-1880

0.18

-0.01

0.03

3.81

3.03

10 Year MA

0.10

-0.03

0.09

3.54

3.18

British CPI 1822-1880

5.24

15.66

-14.40

10 Year MA

1.07

2.64

-1.98

US 30y Treasury Yield 1977-2021

3.01

0.74

0.43

13.45

1.56

10 Year MA

2.53

1.61

0.83

10.83

2.71

US CPI 1977-2021

2.68

13.50

-0.32

10 Year MA

1.43

7.38

1.46

Source: Bank of England, BLS, Board of Governors.

It quickly becomes apparent that there are different “conventions” at work in these two markets.

Keynes held that in our modern-day economies central banks have full control over short-term interest rates and that markets build their expectations of future interest rates by closely watching what the central bank is saying and doing. In today’s markets, this is called “Fed-watching.” Lacking the assured calm of Victorian Britain where the yield on a perpetual bond was between 3% and 4% simply because that is the way the world is, modern investors turn to their central banks to set market conventions. We have moved from convention-by-popular-agreement to convention-by-central-bank-fiat.

Now that we understand the two competing theories, we can test them by using the government's fiscal stance as our experimental variable. If the loanable funds theory is true, then we should expect to find a strong relationship between government deficits and long-term interest rates. If the government is issuing bonds into these markets for their spending programs and these bonds are “soaking up” cash, then interest rates should rise almost mechanically. Expectations, in this model, would only create some short-term noise; in the medium-to-long term, the relationship should be ironclad. If, on the other hand, the Keynesian view is true, then we would expect to find a skittish, unstable relationship between government deficits and long-term interest rates. This is because the government deficit will be only one amongst many variables that Fed-watchers will consider when trying to guess at future moves by the central bank.

We use a standard Taylor Rule framework to examine this relationship, but we add an expectations variable, a term premium variable, and a risk aversion variable. The expectations variable allows the central bank to induce changes in the long-term rate through its impact on perceived future short-term rates. This variable is determined by signaling, open market operations, and the capacity to set the short-term rate explicitly by fiat. We are not deploying a Taylor Rule framework to determine a “natural” rate of interest, as is typically done. Rather we use it as a simple central bank reaction function that we believe gives a fair representation of what Fed-watchers are thinking when they watch the central bank.

For our empirical work, we take a variety of measures of the long-term interest rate and of the deficit. For interest rates, we use the current 10-year Treasury rate and the 10-year Treasury rate 5 years forward. For deficits, we use: CBO projections of 5-year future deficits-to-GDP; the total current deficit-to-GDP; and the structural deficit-to-GDP. We then add our central bank reaction functions by including inflation expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters for inflation expectations; the Federal Reserve Board model of the output gap; we also include the level of Federal Reserve holdings of government debt as a percentage of GDP; and to proxy for risk aversion, we use the VIX index, the binary NBER recession indicator. and flight-to-safety episodes from Baele et al.

The results are laid out in the table below. Projected deficits have an insignificantly negative long-run impact on the forward rate though in the short run there are both significantly negative and positive impacts at lags zero and one, respectively. For deficits excluding automatic stabilizers, there is a significantly positive effect in the short run at lags one and three of about 15 and 16 basis points respectively. However, there is a significantly negative effect in the long run of -27 basis points which takes less than three quarters to accumulate. Finally, the total deficit only has an insignificantly negative coefficient of 12 basis points in the long run which also takes less than three months to accumulate with no corresponding impact in the short run.

Table 3: Estimated ARDL model for the long-term forward rate

Long Run

b

t-stat

b

t-stat

b

t-stat

INF

1.445

14.269

INF

1.377

15.001

INF

1.356

12.803

HOLD

-0.273

-6.656

HOLD

-0.280

-10.786

HOLD

-0.286

-8.257

FOMC

2.689

3.981

FOMC

1.452

1.927

FOMC

2.673

3.984

GAP

0.384

1.330

GAP

0.012

0.040

GAP

0.007

0.017

VIX

0.006

0.285

VIX

-0.009

-0.611

VIX

0.010

0.559

CBO5DEF

-0.100

-1.142

GOVGDPAS

-0.271

-3.471

TOTDEF

-0.119

-1.631

C

4.127

7.009

C

5.273

8.929

C

4.761

7.195

Short Run

b

t-stat

b

t-stat

b

t-stat

Δ5Y10Y(-1)

0.038

0.594

Δ5Y10Y(-1)

0.076

1.194

Δ5Y10Y(-1)

0.025

0.399

Δ5Y10Y(-2)

0.051

0.783

Δ5Y10Y(-2)

0.064

1.013

Δ5Y10Y(-2)

0.054

0.828

Δ5Y10Y(-3)

0.173

2.663

Δ5Y10Y(-3)

0.214

3.430

Δ5Y10Y(-3)

0.158

2.459

ΔHOLD

0.002

0.027

ΔHOLD

0.194

1.992

ΔHOLD

-0.021

-0.257

ΔHOLD(-1)

0.195

2.223

ΔFOMC

0.871

8.066

ΔHOLD(-1)

0.151

1.519

ΔGAP

0.309

2.409

ΔGAP

0.229

1.455

ΔHOLD(-2)

0.188

2.025

ΔGAP(-1)

0.359

2.890

ΔGAP(-1)

0.205

1.278

ΔGAP

0.087

0.620

ΔGAP(-2)

0.270

2.172

ΔGAP(-2)

0.461

3.090

ΔGAP(-1)

0.224

1.547

ΔVIX

-0.011

-2.099

ΔGOVGDPAS

0.001

0.021

ΔGAP(-2)

0.388

2.815

ΔCBO5DEF

-0.148

-2.399

ΔGOVGDPAS(-1)

0.146

2.181

ΔVIX

-0.010

-2.005

ΔCBO5DEF(-1)

0.147

2.450

ΔGOVGDPAS(-2)

-0.025

-0.382

USREC

0.172

1.447

USREC

0.218

1.714

ΔGOVGDPAS(-3)

0.158

2.359

FTS

-0.245

-2.659

FTS

-0.235

-2.544

USREC

0.059

0.500

ECT(-1)

-0.370

-9.909

ECT(-1)

-0.343

-9.836

FTS

-0.205

-2.303

ECT(-1)

-0.396

-8.147

Lags

(4, 0, 2, 0, 3, 1, 2)


Lags

(4, 0, 1, 1, 3, 0, 4)

Lags

(4, 0, 3, 0, 3, 1, 0)

LM(2)

0.614

LM(2)

0.401

LM(2)

0.680

LM(4)

0.406

LM(4)

0.254

LM(4)

0.457

RESET

0.343

RESET

0.982

RESET

0.452

Notes: ΔX(-i) is the i lag of the first differenced variable X.

How would we summarise these findings? We would say that they are highly variable. There is no reliable impact of the deficit on long-term interest rates. When we do see some impact, it tends to be ephemeral and fades out quickly. This is what we would expect to see if the Keynesian theory of interest rate determination is true. When the deficit blows out and occupies the financial markets headlines, Fed-watchers sometimes react negatively and sell bonds. Presumably this is because they assume that higher government deficits lead to higher future inflation. This proves to be an extremely myopic view of inflationary dynamics as evidenced by the generally weak relationship between government finances and inflation. As the news cycle changes and an outsized deficit fades from view, interest rates revert to the path set for them through central bank guidance.

This variability also explains why other literature on this topic is, as we note in our literature review, so muddled. In the existing literature on deficits and interest rates, different authors find different things – with one establishing a relationship and another rejecting it. Both our findings and the existing literature taken in toto, lend support to the Keynesian theory of interest rates, a theory that emphasizes the role of uncertainty and convention in financial market price determination. We think this quote from GLS Shackle, summing up Keynes’ view, captures the evidence nicely:

Conventional judgments are those which, by some more or less accidental coalescence of ideas or some natural but hidden means of communication, are adopted by a mass of people who cannot find, and are not really concerned to find, any ‘solid,’ ‘objective,’ and genuinely meaningful basis of judgment… The character of judgments, opinions, and valuations thus arrived at will be a capricious instability. (Shackle 1972, p225)

Markets seek to avoid enormous amounts of uncertainty by anchoring themselves to some larger conventional norm. In 19th century Britain, strong normative social conventions anchored long-term interest rates. In our modern economies, we have opted for a technocratic or pseudo-technocratic solution: we have created central banks and an entire financial press that supports long-term interest rate determination by Fed-watching. This gives the market firm rock to stand on in a desert of otherwise shifting sands and can be captured empirically by a modified Taylor Rule. If the central bank announced tomorrow that it would decide on future short-term interest rate determination by looking at government deficits, then we believe the long-term interest rate would be set in this manner and a solid relationship would turn up in empirical estimates. But until that day, the government deficit is just another variable that pops in and out of existence in the financial news and leads, at best, to some short-term noise in the government bond markets.

In contrast to the loanable funds theory of interest rate determination, Keynes’ theory is a truly financial theory of the interest rates. Both present authors have spent most of their adult lives working in financial markets. Neither of us have ever seen a loanable funds model used to structure a bond portfolio. Both of us have seen Fed-watching on an almost daily basis, however. Keynes too spent a great deal of his life studying and playing the financial markets. We are not surprised by his theory. It is exactly the sort of theory a practical, experienced financier would come up with. Now the ball is in the economists’ court: will they take practical finance seriously and integrate it into their economic theories as Keynes did, or will they continue to insist that supply and demand diagrams are a solution to every economic problem?


References

Baele, L., Bekaert, G., Inghelbrecht, K., & Wei, M. (2020). Flights to Safety. The Review of Financial Studies, 33(2), 689–746.

Shackle, G.L.S. (1972). Epistemics and Economics: A Critique of Economic Doctrines. Cambridge University Press.


Read More

Government Deficits and Interest Rates: A Keynesian View


Contrary to the neoclassical loanable funds theory, historical bond yields show Keynes was right that “convictions” anchor long-term interest rates
Read More

Vaccine-Preventable Diseases Surging in Africa Due to COVID-19 Disruptions


The World Health Organization warns that vaccine-preventable diseases are spreading across the African continent because routine immunizations against killer diseases have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Tens of millions of people have missed out on routine immunization services. That not only puts their lives at risk from potentially deadly diseases but creates an environment in which killer diseases can thrive and spread.

Benido Impouma, director for communicable and noncommunicable diseases in the World Health Organization’s regional office for Africa, said the pandemic has put a huge strain on health systems. It has impaired routine immunization services in many African countries and forced the suspension of vaccination drives.

Over the past year, he said, outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases have increased across the continent.

“For instance, between January and March of this year, around 17,000 cases of measles were recorded. This is a 400 percent increase compared with the same period last year,” Impouma said. “Twenty-four countries in our region confirmed outbreaks of a variant of polio last year, which is four times more than in 2020.”

FILE - A community health worker administers a polio vaccine during a polio immunization campaign in Kiamako, Nairobi, Kenya, July 19, 2021.

FILE – A community health worker administers a polio vaccine during a polio immunization campaign in Kiamako, Nairobi, Kenya, July 19, 2021.

He noted that outbreaks of other vaccine-preventable diseases, such as yellow fever, also are surging.

The World Health Organization and UNICEF recently issued a report warning of a heightened risk of vaccine-preventable diseases. They attribute it in large part to increasing inequalities in access to vaccines due to pandemic-related disruptions.

They expressed particular concern about a worldwide spike in measles cases, which have increased by 79 percent in the first two months of this year. They noted that most cases were reported in Africa and in eastern Mediterranean regions.

WHO is working to improve immunization coverage and protection for children, Impouma said, adding that WHO and its partners are supporting African countries to carry out catch-up routine vaccination campaigns.

“More than 30 African countries implemented at least one routine catch-up immunization campaign in the second half of last year,” he said. “And this year, countries are showing progress, with measles and yellow fever campaigns starting again. Central African Republic, Chad, Equatorial Guinea, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Somalia and South Sudan have reinstated measles campaigns, which is good news.”

However, COVID-19 news is not as promising. WHO said that this week new COVID-19 cases and deaths on the continent have increased for the first time after a decline of more than two months for cases and one month for deaths.

The latest recorded figures put the number of cases at 11.6 million, including nearly 253,000 deaths.

News.... browse around here



Trading News: https://www.bitcoinisle.com/2022/03/01/2-key-derivatives-metrics-signal-bitcoin-traders-expect-btc-to-hold-40000/

Exciting Finds: https://www.cnnindonesia.com/teknologi/20211007164948-199-704816/bocah-as-temukan-fosil-diduga-gigi-naga-usia-12-ribu-tahun

Stay up to date on China: https://www.chinapulse.com/data-news/2021/05/08/bain-co-social-commerce-accounted-for-about-44-of-the-109-billion-e-commerce-market-in-southeast-asia-in-2020-vietnam-leads-with-an-adoption-rate-of-65-while-thailands-adoption-rate/




Houston headlines


https://m.newsreview.uk/2021/10/this-museum-show-features-the-most-dangerous-toys-ever-and-asks-if-modern-childhood-is-risky-enough-forbes/

Beijing Orders Schools Closed in Tightening of Virus Rules

Beijing is closing all city schools in a further tightening of COVID-19 restrictions, as China’s capital seeks to prevent a wider outbreak.

The city of 21 million has already ordered three rounds of mass testing this week, with the third coming Friday.

On Thursday, the city’s Education Bureau ordered all schools to end classes from Friday and said it hadn’t determined when they would resume.

It also wasn’t clear whether schools would be able to offer classes online or allow students facing crucial exams to return to class.

Beijing announced 50 new cases on Thursday, two of them asymptomatic, bringing its total in the latest wave of infections to around 150.

Students make up more than 30% of total cases, with clusters linked to six schools and two kindergartens in Chaoyang.

Also Thursday, residents of two housing compounds in Beijing’s Chaoyang district were ordered to stay inside and some clinics and businesses shut down.

Beijing has moved more swiftly than many Chinese cities to impose restrictions while case numbers remain low and the scale of the outbreak is still manageable.

The goal is to avoid the sort of sweeping measures imposed on Shanghai, where the highly transmissible omicron variant has torn through the city of 25 million. Restrictions confining many Shanghai residents to their homes are now in their fourth week and all schools have been online since last month.

The strict measures have spurred anger and frustration over shortages of food and basic supplies, the inability of hospitals to deal with other health emergencies and poor conditions at centralized quarantine sites where anyone who tests positive — or even has contact with a positive case — is required to be sent.

The National Health Commission on Thursday reported 11,285 new cases across mainland China, most of them asymptomatic and the vast majority in Shanghai, where an additional 47 deaths were reported.

Shanghai city authorities said Wednesday they will analyze the results of new rounds of testing to determine which neighborhoods can safely expand freedom of movement for residents.

Shanghai is seeking to achieve “societal zero COVID” whereby new cases are found only in people who are already under surveillance, such as in centralized quarantine, or among those considered to be close contacts. That would indicate chains of transmission in the open community have been severed, reducing the risk of new clusters forming from previously undetected sources.

While China’s overall vaccination rate stands at around 90%, just 62% of people over 60 have been vaccinated in Shanghai, the country’s largest and wealthiest city. Health workers have been visiting elderly residents at home to administer vaccines in a bid to boost that figure, the city’s Health Commission said Thursday.

The pandemic and stringent lockdown measures have taken a toll on the economy, especially in Shanghai, which is home to the world’s busiest port and China’s main stock market, along with a large international business community.

A full month’s shutdown of the city will subtract 2% from China’s annual economic growth, according to an analysis from ING bank earlier this month. Lockdowns could also affect spring planting, driving up food prices, while transport has also been badly hit.

Baiyun Airport, in the southern manufacturing hub of Guangzhou, saw 80% of flights canceled Thursday after “abnormal results” were found while testing airport staff, according to online state media source The Paper.

Travel, particularly between provinces and cities, is expected to fall during next week’s May Day holiday. China’s international borders have largely remained closed since the COVID-19 outbreak was first discovered in the central city of Wuhan.

Despite Beijing’s promises to reduce the human and economic cost of its strict “zero-COVID” strategy, leaders from President Xi Jinping down have ruled out joining the United States and other governments that are dropping restrictions and trying to live with the virus.

All but 13 of China’s 100 biggest cities by economic output were under some form of restrictions earlier this month, according to Gavekal Dragonomics, a research firm.

News.... browse around here



Trading News: https://www.coinblock.asia/2022/02/05/cryptos-could-be-a-speculative-mania-economist-eswar-prasad-says/299818

Exciting Finds: http://nysbar.com/blogs/EASL/2021/12/theater_news_for_the_week_endi_2.html

Stay up to date on China: https://www.chinapulse.com/data-news/2021/05/21/jd-logistics-raises-3-16-billion-in-hong-kong-ipos-reuters/




Houston News


https://acheterpresdechezmoi.fr/c2apa/is-tokyo-safe-from-tsunami.html

China, N.Korea Halt Border Rail Crossing Over COVID Fears


China has suspended cross-border freight train services with North Korea following consultations after COVID-19 infections in its border city of Dandong, the foreign ministry said Friday.

The suspension came within four months after North Korea eased border lockdowns enforced early in 2020 against the coronavirus, measures global aid groups have blamed for its worsening economic woes and risks to food supplies for millions.

“Due to the COVID situation in Dandong, after friendly consultation between both sides, China has decided to suspend freight services from Dandong to Sinuiju,” foreign ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian told a daily briefing in Beijing.

South Korea’s Yonhap news agency said authorities in Dandong had acted on a request from North Korea, citing unidentified sources.

Authorities in Seoul, the capital of neighboring South Korea, said they were keeping watch on the situation.

The Chinese city of Dandong has been fighting a COVID-19 outbreak since late April, reporting 220 infections from April 24-27.

By Wednesday, authorities had locked down 77 residential compounds, while people elsewhere were asked to keep to designated areas.

North Korea has not officially reported any COVID-19 infections since the pandemic began but adopted border curbs among its anti-virus measures.

News.... browse around here



Trading News: https://www.coinblock.asia/2022/02/05/cryptos-could-be-a-speculative-mania-economist-eswar-prasad-says/299818

Exciting Finds: https://www.cnnindonesia.com/teknologi/20211007164948-199-704816/bocah-as-temukan-fosil-diduga-gigi-naga-usia-12-ribu-tahun

Stay up to date on China: https://www.chinapulse.com/data-news/2021/05/30/australian-betting-technology-company-betmakers-proposes-to-acquire-tabcorps-betting-and-media-division-worth-au-4-billion-iag-inside-asian-gaming/




Updates Houston


https://acheterpresdechezmoi.fr/c2apa/is-tokyo-safe-from-tsunami.html

South Korea to End Outdoor Mask Mandate


South Korea said Friday it will lift its outdoor mask mandate next week in response to a steady drop in COVID-19 cases after an omicron-fueled surge.

The announcement comes after Seoul dropped almost all other social-distancing measures earlier this month, ending two years of strict requirements that put a massive strain on the country’s small businesses.

From Monday, residents will no longer be required to wear face masks outdoors unless attending an event with more than 50 participants, health authorities said.

“As social-distancing measures are lifted and the mask mandate is being adjusted, people are increasingly returning to their normal lives,” Jeong Eun-kyeong, director of Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA), told reporters.

“This is all thanks to the patience and cooperation of the people over a long period of time,” Jeong added.

South Korea’s incoming administration, headed by conservative president-elect Yoon Suk-y, on Friday criticized the decision to end the mask mandate as “premature,” questioning if it had been based solely on “virus prevention measures.”

Ahn Cheol-soo, chief of Yoon’s transition team, had previously said the new government planned to make a decision on the mandate in May.

South Korea reported 50,568 new coronavirus cases Friday, well down from the peak of more than 620,000 a day in mid-March.

The KDCA’s Jeong said there had been a “steady decrease” in COVID-19 cases for the past six weeks.

“The number of new critically ill patients is also decreasing,” she said, adding hospitals had enough beds to treat new inpatients.

More than 86% of South Korea’s 51 million people have been fully vaccinated, with the majority also receiving a booster shot.

About 22,700 people in the country have died from the coronavirus — a 0.13% fatality rate, one of the world’s lowest.

[NDN/ccn/comedia Links]

News.... browse around here



Trading News: https://www.coinblock.asia/2022/02/05/cryptos-could-be-a-speculative-mania-economist-eswar-prasad-says/299818

Exciting Finds: https://www.cnnindonesia.com/teknologi/20211007164948-199-704816/bocah-as-temukan-fosil-diduga-gigi-naga-usia-12-ribu-tahun

Stay up to date on China: https://www.chinapulse.com/data-news/2021/05/08/bain-co-social-commerce-accounted-for-about-44-of-the-109-billion-e-commerce-market-in-southeast-asia-in-2020-vietnam-leads-with-an-adoption-rate-of-65-while-thailands-adoption-rate/




Headlines houston


https://m.newsreview.uk/2021/10/this-museum-show-features-the-most-dangerous-toys-ever-and-asks-if-modern-childhood-is-risky-enough-forbes/

Thursday, April 28, 2022

May 2022 Botanic Buzz

In this issue from our Denver Botanic Gardens you will find:

  • Spring Plant Sale – May 6 & 7 at York Street location
  • Music at the Gardens! The popular summer concert series at the Denver Botanic Gardens returns!
  • An new exhibition by sculptor Ursula von Rydingsvard: The Contour of Feeling
  • Check out their calendar for information about yoga in the gardens, classes for children and much more!

The post May 2022 Botanic Buzz appeared first on Cranmer Park/Hilltop Civic Association.

News.... browse around here



Trading News: https://topplantgroundworks.com/xxseem/actors-who-are-taller-than-you-think.html

Exciting Finds: https://www.cnnindonesia.com/teknologi/20211007164948-199-704816/bocah-as-temukan-fosil-diduga-gigi-naga-usia-12-ribu-tahun

Stay up to date on China: https://www.chinapulse.com/data-news/2021/05/08/bain-co-social-commerce-accounted-for-about-44-of-the-109-billion-e-commerce-market-in-southeast-asia-in-2020-vietnam-leads-with-an-adoption-rate-of-65-while-thailands-adoption-rate/




Houston headlines


https://m.newsreview.uk/2021/10/this-museum-show-features-the-most-dangerous-toys-ever-and-asks-if-modern-childhood-is-risky-enough-forbes/

The Ukraine War and the Madness of Militarism


Author and peace activist Norman Solomon talks about the double standards in US foreign policy that have smoothed the path for Russia's inexcusable invasion of Ukraine. The role of the military-industrial-complex in the US is one of the main reasons we lack a single standard for the use of military force and human rights, says Solomon.

Subscribe and Listen on: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | Google Podcasts | YouTube

Transcript

Rob Johnson:

Welcome to Economics and Beyond. I'm Rob Johnson, President of the Institute for New Economic Thinking. I'm here today with Norman Solomon who I discovered, part of the year, is my neighbor out in Northern California. I'm only out there a couple months a year. But he is an extraordinary author. He's the co-founder of rootsaction.org, founding director of the Institute for Public Accuracy, and he's written two books that I'm aware of. War Made Easy: How the Presidents and Pundits Keep Spending Us to Death, Made Love, Got War: Close Encounters with America's Warfare State. He writes a lot of fascinating articles I followed for a great deal of time over time, salon.com. They made a film of War Made Easy, which is available on YouTube. And without disclosing any details, he's got another book on the horizon. So I think you can count on the fact that we'll make another chapter after we finish this episode. But, Norman, thanks for joining me here today.

Norman Solomon:

Hey, thanks, Rob.

Rob Johnson:

This is a terrifying time and I was inspired to explore with you to try to understand what's going on, how did we get here, and what do we do about it? So let's start with, we have an audience of young scholars too and if there are things that you can impart as to why you've chosen the career trajectory you have, I think they would be curious about that as well. So let me start there. What got you into this realm of looking at national security and American political economy and so forth? What was the catalyst that inspired you to choose this path?

Norman Solomon:

Gradually as a teenager, I became aware of the Vietnam War. I was born in 1951 and grew up in the Washington DC suburbs where of course so many people were government workers in various roles and levels. And around about 1965, '66, as I entered high school, I of course began to think about and I would read the Washington Post on the kitchen table every morning and so forth. And I assumed that the people in charge knew what they were doing and were believable. And gradually, by 1967, I started to believe that we were not only being lied to, but I think even more viscerally that my own country was slaughtering people who just had been born and were living "in the wrong place at the wrong time." And so that really was an early catalyst for me to think critically and also involve myself emotionally in what's the role of my government.

And so as time went on and as I became more of a researcher, writer, activist, one aspect that really interested me, because I was living near a nuclear power plant in Oregon, about an hour drive up the Columbia River from Portland, it made more specific what is nuclear energy? Might there be a danger? What is that danger? Are the assurances we're getting worthwhile, credible, and so forth? And at first I thought that nuclear weapons were a reality that were unchangeable like the stars in the sky. And so I focused on nuclear power. But after doing activist organizing and we were doing nonviolent civil disobedience at that Trojan nuclear power plant, which was the first time that there had been a Gandhian mass organizing to nonviolently blockade an operating nuclear power plant. This was in the late 1970s.

I began to read more about this plant up the river, so to speak, metaphorically. What's up the river from nuclear power? And realized that the Hanford plant had been central to the nuclear preparation and the actual construction of the bomb that was dropped on Nagasaki. And so that connection, I began to see the way that the nuclear synapsis, so to speak, were connected and did some writing about the Hanford plant and did a lot of interviews and so forth. And began to have a sense of connecting. Of course the Vietnam War was over then, but connecting a sense in which a mass frenzy could become so ubiquitous that it would seem normal. Whether it was a war that would go on year after to year, during the Vietnam War, and was taken to be nothing but common sense to support. Whether it was the building and maintenance and deployment of ever more destructive nuclear weapons. All of that percolated through my mind, and some might say my spirit. Whatever words one might want to attach to it.

It came to be sort of concentric. I think it is for a lot of people. There's a sort of macro of this is a country I live in, this is the only planet we have. And then personally, existentially, what are we here for? What am I here for? And the destructiveness of US foreign policy and the political economy based on war and destruction that, as it has for so many people, hit me very hard.

Rob Johnson:

Well, I'm very grateful that you chose to devote your energy to such a what you might call profoundly important challenge to the trajectories we've been on and the difficulties that we all are haunted by. It's not very often that you find someone with your capability that stays that course. And I'm delighted to be able to talk with you now because it's almost like... I'm just a little bit younger than you are, I was born in 1957. I kind of got a wake up call when Dr. Martin Luther King came to Detroit in 1968, 3 weeks to the day before he passed away and was murdered. But his speech he gave, The Other America, startled people and his speech before that, about one year before his death, Time to Break the Silence Beyond Vietnam, was a very profound influence on me. And I minored in creative writing and studied the writings of Martin Luther King as an undergraduate as I was taking courses in arms control and disarmament. And I remember the bullet of atomic scientists. That had the clock, the number of minutes till midnight, all these things were just were very central.

And so what I'm really enthusiastic about is it's almost like something's just dropped back on us that was a part of a haunted story in my childhood that I thought had dissipated. And I know at some level the stocks of weapons and other things haven't been disassembled and retired. But we're looking at this Russian war now. I read a column of yours, it was just about two weeks ago I guess? Russia's War is an Inexcusable Crime, but the US is not a Credible Force for Peace. What's going on right now and why are we here?

Norman Solomon:

Well, Rob, you used the word haunted, which I think is quite appropriate both generally in terms of our moments in history, living in this era, and when we are willing to, or able to, be cognizant of the threats that emanate from our own society to not only our own lives and our loved ones', but the future generations. And also this specific moment, this shocking conflagration, in Ukraine that I don't think almost anybody really anticipated. And one of the striking aspects I think has been that there's very much an enemy of my enemy is my friend psychology that kicks in very easily. And so it works in a lot of different directions. Some of it is obvious. Maybe some of it is not at all. But we are encouraged to choose up sides between the forces that Martin Luther King Jr called the madness of militarism. And I think he was quite apt.

He, as you know, as somebody who became a scholar of King's work, he didn't use words lightly. There was nobody who chose his words more carefully or precisely. And when he spoke repeatedly in the last year of his life, about the madness of militarism, he was addressing not only the specifics of the Vietnam War and the slaughter that the US was engaged in Southeast Asia, but the political economy, the psychology, the interweave of how lives were lived and lives were taken, the livelihoods, so to speak, that were tied to the extermination of other people. And his commitment to challenging that interweave of what he called materialism, the deadly triplets as he called it, materialism, which I think is really a word for, in that context, of the grasping, the thrashing, the destructiveness of capitalism and racism and militarism. And here we are in 2022, and those dynamics have us by the throat.

And so when we look at the genesis and the reality now of the killing, as we speak, in Ukraine, it very much is a challenge to get beyond the either/or. Either we support one side or the other in terms of US foreign policy and what Russia has been doing in Ukraine. And one way that I came to see it is that hypocrisy doesn't justify carnage. And a mistake among people on the left, I don't think it's dominant, but there's certainly that strain that we can hear and see on the internet, there's this mistaken belief that well, because the United States is hypocritical, therefore there's some excuse for what the Russian government has been doing in Ukraine. There is no excuse for that. It is absolutely without any credible justification whatsoever.

And what part of our quest, I think, and Dr. King was a leader on this, and many others in many walks of life have strained and struggled and worked very hard to bring to light, is that we need single standards of human rights. We need single standards of how a society treats people in one's own country and behaves internationally. And so underlying that, there's a saying among blues musicians, you might feel like you're getting lost, but you won't if you know the blues. And I think of that because with all of the cross currents of ideology, nationalism, and so forth, and these conflicts that occur with propaganda, dueling propaganda, and even warfare, it's easy to get lost. And I believe that there is a core that many people are striving to and often staying within, which is a single standard. And it's a single standard human rights and in the war and peace context, it says, no, you don't get to have your country invade another country because you want to get your way, your national government wants to work its will somewhere else.

And so whether it's what Russia is doing in Ukraine or the United States did in Afghanistan and in Iraq, those are all invasions. And when we hear Antony Blinken, the secretary of state, condemn what Russia has been doing by declaring that it is absolutely unacceptable for a powerful nation to invade another, it's like calling George Orwell. What's going on here? Are we supposed to engage in double think to that extent that we forget? I think one of the rough definitions in the book 1984 of double think was you have a fact and you put it on the shelf and then when you need it for your particular double think, you pull off the shelf and use it and acknowledge it just so long as it is helpful. And then you put it back on the shelf. And so just to sort of sum up, I think that we have this challenge and this opportunity to say, not only do we believe in a single standard of international conduct, but we're going to insist on it.

Rob Johnson:

I'm sitting here with all kinds of cross curtain grins, but with a name like Robert Johnson and the blues music, whether we're at the crossroads or whether we got a hellhound on our trail, I don't quite know, but I did spend a few years of my life running a blues label, which was called Rooster Blues records and did the Comeback of Ike Turner in the realm of blues and all that. So I can feel a lot of the energy that you were describing in that music. And I always cite the theologian James Cone, who wrote a book called The Spirituals and the Blues. And he said the spiritual is about when you know you're in chains and you're giving yourself strength through the afterlife, but the blues are a music that was spawned at a time when you're allegedly free, but you're not free. And he said, and what you're doing is defying things in the here and now in code. And I just thought that was such a beautiful way of seeing how that music was spawned and the contrast with the spirituals he had come from.

But you're seeing all of these, there's a part of me that says, I remember reading stories that said, Bismark says that when a national leader can't resolve their problems at home, the best strategy is to create a foreign enemy to unify everybody around that. And I've been curious, given the tumult that we've had in light of the pandemic and other concerns and the polarity and what I'll call hate politics that we've seen on left and right, whether this ritual is what you might call feeding that external focus in ways that probably have some very, very detrimental side effects.

As Barry White, the musician, once had a song called Practice What You Preach. And you're talking about Blinken talking about how atrocious what Russia is doing is, which it is. But are we going to practice what we preach or are we going to go back to the same kind of thing like we did in Iraq or Afghanistan? These are enormous moral dilemmas. And being the Institute for New Economic Thinking, I really would like to explore with you a little bit, what's going on with what I'll call the force field of market political economy that may be driving this process to a dangerous place? What's going on with what they call the military industrial complex?

Norman Solomon:

Well, that force field is just so powerful, has been for really ever since World War II, and remain so arguably as much or more than ever. So when you have five huge mega corporations absorbing so much of the military budget, Boeing and Northrop Grumman and a few others, they cast such a large shadow. William Harton has done such good work publishing studies and so forth. The lobby, both for the ICBMS that not only we don't need but make the world more dangerous and other, the airborne weaponry that is, the buzz word is aerospace industry, just tremendously lucrative aspects there. And I think it's not rocket science, to use the cliche, to see that there were limited possibilities to garner enormous profits by saying we need to protect ourselves from people in car bombs with box cutters that ultimately, as the so-called War on Terror unfolded and reached some of its limits, such as there was a light at the end of the tunnel. It was the wrong light, according to what the systems prognosticated, but that cash cow was going to diminish in Afghanistan and Iraq and so forth.

But China and Russia were very important enemies. And it doesn't mean that those are angelic countries, nations, governments. I believe that [inaudible 00:20:01] Stone had it right. All governments lie and nothing they say should be believed. It doesn't mean governments lie all the time. It doesn't mean they all lie to the same extremity or with the same results, but we can't simply suspend our sense of disbelief, we can't simply go on faith with anything. And in case of the military industrial complex, which after 9/11 expanded and we can just extend it out to military industrial intelligence complex, outside of the beltway and also Baltimore Washington International Airport. Just these huge growth industries immediately after 9/11 that have continued to this day, that whole nexus of militarism and surveillance and so-called intelligence.

We use these words sometimes we don't think about them. We talk about now we're hearing about the civilized world and civilization. There was the anecdote of the reporter asking Gandhi, "Mr. Gandhi, what do you think of Western civilization?" And Gandhi replied, "I think it would be a good idea." We have so many ways that we're encouraged to, we even use words, going back to oral like defense. It is just ubiquitous across the political spectrum. We talk about defense spending. In print it is lower case D. It's preposterous. And that's yet another benchmark of the psychological progress and achievement of the military industrial complex. To have us believe that now when President Biden puts forward, and this isn't all of it, doesn't include nuclear weapons, 813 billion dollars for the next fiscal year, that we just heard announced for the Biden budget, and that will probably be bumped up. And we're told in the vernacular, that's a defense budget. Well, that's absurd. I would say very little of that is legitimate defense spending.

So that works at so many levels. And, Rob, we could really talk about it all day and not really exhaust the subject because the political economy, the profit making, the ways that almost every congressional district has some company that is involved in profiting from the contracting to the Pentagon, tremendous lobbying on Capitol Hill, tremendous contributions. You have people like Adam Smith, Chair of the house Armed Services Committee, who publicly flirted with the idea a couple of years ago, maybe we don't need a triad of nuclear weapons, maybe we don't need land-based missiles. And he was absolutely correct for that nanosecond. And as Daniel Ellsberg has documented in his book The Doomsday Machine, the existence of the land-based leg of the triad, the ICBMs, makes us less safe.

But very quickly, Adam Smith, who in the last cycle had received $400,000 from so-called defense industry contributors, he flipped right over and said we need this quarter of a trillion dollar investment in the GBSD, what they call the new Northrop Grumman now, initiative to build another generation of ICBMs. It's so ingrained.

And Rob, when I think about, can we imagine the United States of America without a powerful military industrial complex? And at this point since 9/11 or October, 2001, nonstop war. And no matter what Biden said, and he did say last September at the UN, the United States for the first time in 20 years, Biden says we're no longer at war. The United States is no longer at war. To use Biden's, one of his favorite words, that's malarkey, it's just nonsense. When you look at the Cost of War project at Brown University, very clear documentation. The United States is engaged in the so-called war on terror operations in more than 80 countries as we speak. So this gets back to we're almost being, one might say gaslighted. Who are you going to believe? What you're told or what is actually occurring?

Rob Johnson:

Yeah. I had the good fortune a few years ago to meet a man who makes documentary films at the BBC, Adam Curtis. And he made a three part series called the Power of Nightmares. And I joked with him when we had dinner, I said there's a thing in economics called Say's Law, how supply creates its own demand. And I said that really applies to the military. And when I started my career, I spent a little time, six years in Washington, I worked on the United States Senate budget committee under the leadership of Pete Domenici. I noticed every time defense appropriations bills hit the floor, in the media were ominous declarations about the threat, stories about the enemies and so forth. In other words, promotion for the need to pass those bills. And I watched that process over and over again.

When I got to Adam's movie years later, he essentially was saying the way in which they demonized the Soviet Union in order to foster, and this was kind of a Rumsfeld/Chaney skit that he focused on. He said when the Soviet Union stopped, they just transferred the same script to Saddam Hussein in order to keep the urge or the demand for the military procurements vital and alive. But I found all of this, which you might call very haunting. And a person like yourself seems to have found a way to see through it. I think a lot of people are terrified and they feel like they're being protected. So they'll take these signals as evidence of being protected by the government as opposed to being deceived so that the defense industry that you've referred to can prosper.

And this is a very, very potent thing. I'm sure you've done work comparing the size of the United States' defense spending, as they call it, military spending with other countries. And it's orders of like 15 and 20 times. So what are we defending against? Just all kinds of questions. When I look at our budget in OECD numbers, if you look at our government budget, the proportion that's the military and the proportion that's related to healthcare, primarily pharmaceuticals, is so large in comparison to any other country. You can see the what you might call self-fulfilling elements of lobbying and campaign contributions are a very big part of the architecture that we have to endure. And not, in many respects, building things like school systems or quality healthcare, or elder care that would improve the quality of life markedly. So this topic that you have ordered your life to is a first order piece of what we need to understand to get to a better place.

And Dr. King, I went to a conference at the Riverside Church. Andrew [inaudible 00:28:00] and [inaudible 00:28:02] and others were there on behalf of the Quincy Institute. I went last Saturday. It was a celebration of Dr. King's Time to Break the Silence: Beyond Vietnam speech, which was delivered on April 4th of one year to the day before he was murdered. And it was fascinating listening to his daughter Bernice and other panelists talking about how he was attacked when he delivered that speech. And the man who wrote it with him, Vincent Harding, is someone I've met. He's deceased now, but I spent a lot of time talking to his book, The Inconvenient Hero, about the last three years of Dr. King's life. This man is being to buy his allies in the civil rights movement, because they think he's abandoning that agenda. He's being attacked in the Washington Post, the New York Times, and so forth. Dr. King was extremely courageous.

And when I had the opportunity to teach an economics course at the union theological seminary, I would always bring out a thing that he did with A Philip Randolph called a freedom budget for all Americans. It wasn't done for his group albeit. African Americans were at the bottom of the economic ladder and quite abused. He was talking about what we need to do with that triad that you mentioned, militarism, racism, and materialism, what we need to do to create a budget that is for all Americans and just those exercises. I think while he was a theologian, he was a tremendous social scientist and diagnosed our maladies with such penetrating insight. And I guess the question I'm kind of pivoting towards with you is we see this, we see this unhealthy dynamic. If you were, I'm a doctor's son, diagnosis, we can continue that, but what kind of remedies do you prescribe for the patient called the United States of America or for planet earth?

Norman Solomon:

I think of a phrase from the Beyond Vietnam speech that King gave where he said that a nation that year after year continues to spend more on the military side than on social uplift is approaching spiritual death. And it wasn't too many years before that, it was still pretty much in that era. I can remember back when I was a teenager, when the 1964 Civil Rights Law was being debated in Congress and in the nation, we heard the line that you can't legislate morality. And that is absolutely wrong. We do that all the time, for good and for ill. And I believe the structure of the economy has to be changed. There are so many people who would love to devote themselves to helping others in their community and on their planet. And the possibilities for a sense of a livelihood and a personal future, as well as a social future. Those possibilities are very short supply. So people go where there is a sense of security. And that goes at the level of a sense of a personal family livelihood and security, but it's also psychological. What is viable?

And so I believe we're trapped in this self-fulfilling mythology that perpetrates itself as reality that pragmatism is to keep things going the way they are and to invest in the politics of death. And yet that is what, another context, C. Wright Mills described as crack pot realism. This is not realism to go ahead as though the climate was not being destroyed by fossil fuel and other emissions that we have some human control over if we can get a grip. And that's why I come back. I think the economics is just crucial and is part of the weave of what makes a society what it is. And people respond accordingly. We're so human and animal, as the saying goes, that's how we are.

Rob Johnson:

But we have this parable that the legitimacy of capitalism comes from being embedded in a democracy which governs it. And one of the critiques that I've often explored on this podcast is what I call the commodification of social design where the legislators, the regulators, the enforcement are all things that people can, what you might call, influence the likelihood that a politician stays in office with money. Plus or minus. They can attack you and they can... I watch commercial media, avoiding certain subjects because they're advertisers. I watch universities yearning for enhanced endowments as public funding is cut off in a place like California for the state universities. And so they build laboratories and things as joint ventures, which may have some positive dimension.

But they also so seem to, what you might call, succumb to... I guess the way I put it is development departments don't want rebel scholars talking outside of what's comfortable for the power elite that fund the university. And so we have a very different political economy where entertainment, media, education, and campaign incentives have all been commodified and have all been subject to that force field of the power of money.

And as you've talked, just today, and in many of your writings, these refractory forces are taking us to a place that Dr. King referred to as on the way to spiritual death. I think this is a very, very different economy than the one which is romantically embedded in a democracy and governed by a democracy. When dollars matter more than votes, what's the real currency of decision making for our social architecture and design?

Norman Solomon:

There's common sense that would tell us that if you keep going in a certain direction, you will be getting closer. You'll be getting there. And as you're describing, Rob, I was thinking of a speech that a physicist, as I remember named Philip Morrison, who was part of the scientific research, as I remember, that led to the Manhattan Project and nuclear weapons. Gave the speech in believe it was 1948, said the researcher, the scientist, the physicist at the universities is seeing the flood of money from the Navy, from the military, from the then war and then so-called Defense Department. And the scientists generally know that this is wrong. Their capacities, their skills, their educated abilities are being funneled into military, into the war preparation, into the weapons research. This is in 1948.

And from that day to this, that dynamic, as you allude to, is so powerful in academia, in the private industry, in the so-called public private partnership. And now, very insidiously, in the last decade, more and more clear it's happening in Silicon valley.

It because do no evil has become a myth. Workers at Google and elsewhere have been trying to say, "No, we don't want to be an accessory to the war machinery." But that machinery is very powerful to put it mildly. And I think we keep coming back to what can we, as individuals, as organizers, what can we do as people who really care? And I think, among other things, is to not be overtaken and suppressed and reconfigured by what is as though that's the only possibility. Because there are real possibilities that the great activist, AJ Musty, when there were the calls to engage in atomic bomb drills in the 1950s, or when he went out to the no Nevada test site when bombs were being exploded there in the fifties, and he was asked, do you really think that what you're doing will change the way the world is?

And his reply was, well, I don't know about that, but if I don't do this, the world will change me for the worst. It's the acquiescence that is to be struggled against first internally, at the same time that this social structures, the economy, are absolutely crucial. And I think sometimes there's, and maybe this is a new age danger, there's a false dichotomy. You'll hear people say, well, I just think the world will change when I change myself internally. And that's so non-dialectical. It's like, we are in the world and it's not an either/or. There's a constant interplay between what's in our hearts and minds and what is going out in the macro in terms of our conditions that we live under as people in the society and the world. To choose one or the other is ridiculous. And so maybe a very, very vulgar Marxist might say, "Oh, it's all about the way the economy's structured." And then very fashionable, I think in some circles is, "Oh, you have to really just change yourself and work on yourself." I think both of those are inadequate, but have some grains of truth.

Rob Johnson:

Yeah. They may be necessary, but not sufficient conditions. I have recently been inspired by some friends to read some of the works of the psychologist Carl Jung. That he wrote, it's around volume 10 of his collected works, the title of that volume is Civilization in Transition. And this is where he goes from dealing with the shadow work and unconscious of the individual to what he calls the collective unconscious and the dynamics of how we can together get off course or with those improvements within the self contribute to the challenge and restore the course. But the shadow of the collective unconscious seems to be quite resilient and persistent. He was actually reflecting on the experience in Germany, in the thirties and forties that stirred him up. He saw things as much, what I'll call the ugly, was much more resilient and powerful than he had imagined. And how we band together, how do we come out of that ditch, is very much a concern.

Norman Solomon:

The epigraph to a book that we've referred to today by Daniel Ellsberg, The Doomsday Machine, is from Nietzsche. Where he says, "Madness and insanity is rare in individuals, but in groups and nations, it's commonplace." I think there's a lot to that. And the group, whatever we want to call it, frenzy, hysteria, psychosis of militarism, we've seen it time and again. How do we explain that fairly reliable polls show most people in Russia are supporting Putin and the so-called military operation in Ukraine. Now it's true that the facts are distorted and maybe probably many of them don't have full information. But still there's an enthusiasm that is tapped into, stoked, and exploited by leaders who lead their country and send their militaries into war.

And I've been looking at the polling, for instance, when the first President Bush sent US troops and the missiles into a War on Iraq and when the Iraqi troops were driven out of Kuwait. Well that was notoriously called a turkey shoot by one officer. The slaughter of retreating soldiers. And many civilians killed during the Gulf War. In six weeks in 1991, 100,000 Iraqis killed by the US and yet tremendous enthusiasm for Arnold [inaudible 00:42:34] and Colin Powell. And while he had not been terribly popular before then, Gallup registered the highest popularity rating in its history for president, 89% by early 1991 for George Herbert Walker Bush. And that is not a typical.

Also not atypical is that it tends to not last unless it's a clear cut triumph for the US and unless the domestic economy doesn't tank or go south. And as we know, if you were to look at a graph, it was a plunge for the first president Bush from 89% to about 45% within a year. And of course he lost for reelection. So it's just to say that, it goes to your point I think, that there is whatever you want to call it, a very dark side in, whether we consider it to be a design flaw or human characteristic or an exploited and drummed up possibility in humanity, that we always have to be on guard against. And that certainly has to do with the risk of fascism in this country, in the United States of America.

In the third decade of the 21st century, the Republican party is a Neofascist organization and it thrives on whether we look at it that way or not. It thrives on militarism and authoritarian views and the look for a big daddy leader. And, speaking of another European philosopher, you might say, and psychologist, Wilhelm Reich wrote about that zeal for the big leader, the great leader who will solve everything for us. And there is no better description of that, in a way, or way to describe, than Donald Trump. Jason Stanley wrote this excellent book describing fascism, and when you read it, I think I have it here somewhere on my desk, let me grab it here. It's quite [inaudible 00:44:58].

It's "Why Fascism Works: The Politics of Us and Them" by Jason Stanley came out a few years ago. He describes characteristics of fascism. And you can just substitute Donald Trump's name and the whole psychology behind it. And even though he talked against war, he also talked for it and said the US was too wimpy. And my fear as we talk here in the spring of 2022, is that the jacked up militarism that comes with the rhetoric of the Biden administration calling for regime change in Russia, what happened to a single standard? What happened to good for the goose is good for the Gander. Let's be clear. If we're going to say that Vladimir Putin is a war criminal, then we also need to say that George W. Bush is a war criminal. And we also, if you really look at the facts, we have to look at the President who Biden was on the ticket with and Vice President for eight years, Barack Obama, you could make a very strong case was a war criminal. When you look at the escalations and the drone wars and so forth in especially Afghanistan, but also military actions in Iraq and so forth. Horrendous slaughters, even if they weren't covered by US media.

What happened to if you invade country, then that is impermissible? If you just do it without cause, without justification, without any defense. So we're in this sort of Orwellian zone that is [inaudible 00:46:46] to itself and US mass media largely in an irony free zone. And so the contradictions are almost taboo to talk about. Imagine, Rob, if you or I went to the New York Times and said we have an oped and we want to write about how the last few presidents have also been war criminals while also affirming that Vladimir Putin is a war criminal. It's just a no go. It's just not within the realm of discourse. And yet we're told that we have to spend more and more money, we have to send more billions of dollars worth of weapons to Eastern Europe, we have to deploy more troops near the Russian border.

This is insanity that we're now facing where one leader of a country that has the status of a nuclear superpower is declaring that the leader of another country that is the leader of a nuclear super power, that that leader must be taken out of power, must be deposed. This is something where the unthinkable becomes thinkable. And that's something that Stanley is writing about. In the social context he's saying, or looking for, when is it fascism? They're not goose stepping yet. They haven't shut down the Congress yet. And the goal posts keep being moved. So what's unthinkable one year becomes thinkable later on and the goal posts keep moving and we become gradually acclimated. And just to sort of go back, for a moment, to this question of US domestic politics, we need to wake ourselves up more and more because the very possibility of democracy is under threat from the Republican party. And that is just reality. And its name is Trump.

Rob Johnson:

Well, that January 6th episode was a symptom of the kind of temptations that Mr. Stanley writes about in his book. And what we have, what you might call the will to do about it in the aftermath. Investigation, legal prosecution, and so forth is what you might call seemingly inadequate. All I'm saying is it doesn't seem to be set up to deter it from happening again. And I think these are very, very daunting prospects. And when I look at, economists talk about the opportunity cost of this or that. When we're rebuilding and fortifying nuclear arsenals and weaponry and so forth, we're not building the rungs in the ladder called knowledge intensive education. A whole lot of people, I grew up in the Midwest, used their hands and then automation and machine learning and globalization took away their jobs and they didn't get what I'll call transformational assistance of any scale.

And now they have children who they are in despair about the prospect for their children. And we're going to go build more things in the military and not in the era of digitization and so forth. Prepare these young people for careers in the knowledge intensive service business. That looks to me like we're going in the wrong direction. The old parables in economics, W. Arthur Lewis made very clear, the Nobel Laureate, about moving from the farm to the city and higher productivity, et cetera. Well now you don't go from the farm to the city, you go from low margin services to high margin services through the education system. But the education system is not being fortified. And what does that portend for despair and acquiescence to authoritarianism in the future? When, out of helplessness, you want to protect your children and you feel abandoned by the current structures.

Norman Solomon:

I think so much of that is just hidden in plain sight. We rarely see or hear that discourse in the mass media. There's the word neoliberalism, the sort of shorthand for where it's gone. And arguably, and I think sensibly, we could say that the democratic party and I was a Bernie Sanders delegate in 2016 and 2020, I've participated in that process of the Democratic party, but I think it really needs to be said and emphasized and heeded that the neoliberal policies really reek of a kind of elitism and snobbery and condescension to working people and want to be working people who are underemployed or unemployed. And so what about that anger and rage of people, such as those you're talking about who are not being provided with the real opportunities for gainful employment and education of the sort that will be suited for where the economy has been going?

So Trump can speak to them demagogically, but often very effectively. And yet we have the stroking the chin and scratching the head from places like the New York Times and Washington Post editorial boards. Like why are these people voting for Trump? Or maybe it's because the elitist politicians who, such as Hillary Clinton getting six figures for one speech to Wall Street or others who are so enmeshed with those who are making huge profits from the status quo of corporate America, maybe they simply, and I think they are simply, not caring very much in their policies about people's standard of livings and their sense of or lack of security for the future. For themselves, for their families, for their loved ones, for their friends. It's all capsulized in that saying, maybe it's too facile, but it's very true. Are the policies geared to Main Street or Wall Street? And the answers have been overwhelmingly Wall Street.

Rob Johnson:

And I have seen, I often cite a book that the late Jane Jacobs wrote, her last book was called Dark Age Ahead. She was based in Toronto, but looking over the world system that was led by the United States. And her third chapter in that book is called Credentializing Versus Educating. Are schools creating inputs to production, or are they creating citizens? And citizens in a vibrant democracy become what you might call the force field or the compass for where we should go. But when people are afraid and fear are being left behind, they may become inputs to production in order to secure themselves. But therefore, which you might call, using Jung, constructing their own shadows around the dilemmas and the compromises they've had to make to honor their fear rather than honor what you might call their true spirit or the true self that they aspire to be.

And I think these things are very haunting. And when the school system doesn't even contribute rungs in the ladder to that pathway, where do we go? And I know I've done a little bit of work in a study group with people around Pope Francis. They talk about how much of the world doesn't go to college, but people are tempted, if education is not teaching us what I will call Econo-civics about the institutions of our society, civics when I was a kid taught you about government institutions. Well now these private institutions and how they work, a lot of people will drop out of high school because they don't think the curriculum has any relevance to their life and they might as well go start earning a wage to help their family. How do you keep people in school long enough to become citizens so that a democracy can function?

I think all of these dilemmas are, how I say, interacting with the way we create our priorities within the government. And as we've talked about today, the military priorities, in the case of the United States, the pharmaceutical system and others, or the allowing of tax avoidance, which used to be called tax evasion, and then say we can't afford it while everybody that's super well off with great lawyers can keep their money offshore. I don't know how you put the Republic back together again, restore faith, comradery, diminish the polarized hostility that comes from fear. And I'm always reminded of a book I read years ago by Gerald Jampolsky, a psychologist, Love is Letting Go of Fear. And I'm not talking about romantic love. It's being part of a community with faith. I don't know how we get back on track right now, but I think illumination, which you've done in your writing, is a key ingredient. Understanding the dilemmas and the trade offs we face is the first step, that's the diagnostic step. You have been an activist. Is activism being unrelenting in working towards these changes the necessary condition of the next step?

Norman Solomon:

Part of the process, I think. And as you're referring to not sufficient, but essential is our sense of our own reality right now. I think of a map. If the map is comporting with the terrain, then it's helpful. If we're using false maps, we're just sort of screwed. We're just going to keep getting lost or we can't really even figure out where we want to go or how to go where we want to go. So necessary, but not sufficient is to have a fairly accurate map of our current circumstances and power relations in the society. And not the mythology that we're largely fed, unfortunately, by mass media. But then if the terrain is mapped out fairly accurately, and not rigidly because things could change, then we have real possibilities because humans have achieved such greatness.

And I don't mean enormous empires and wealth. I mean greatness of human spirit and achievement for taking care of each other and elevating ourselves as societies and as a species. I think of something that the historian Howard [inaudible 00:58:35] liked to say, who I think we miss very much, but Howard, year after year, would say that we don't know what is possible, we may be very discouraged. But he would cite examples. And classic one is how would we ever have believed that in South Africa not only Apartheid would end, but there would be a sense of reconciliation and that Nelson Mandela, after all those years in prison, would be the president of the country. Of course the South African government, that was not Nirvana and it had a lot of corporatism infecting that government, but the point is that we can't always know what is possible.

And sometimes when things seem very bleak, there's an unexpected breakthrough. A metaphor that's been used is the lily pad in the pond where there might just be one lily pad and then there's another one, it seems to be isolated. But very quickly the whole pond can be filled with the lily pads. And movements are that way. And we have a lot of examples where people have achieved great things when it seemed almost impossible.

So one truism that I think we can be left with is we could work our whole lives, we could devote ourselves to creating necessary change, and we could fail. But one thing that's for sure is that if we don't dedicate ourselves to making those changes, then they won't be made. And so in a way that's the existential choice, passivity and capitulation to what in our hearts we know is wrong or finding ways to the best of our abilities, individually and collectively, to live and work for what we believe in.

Rob Johnson:

Well, I'm, how do I say, it's my propensity to hear music. It's like the lyrics are that spirit coming into me. I've often said that I don't know about the Father and the Son, but the Holy Spirit I can believe in because I've listened to Aretha sing, John Coltrane's horn, Marvin Gay's social awareness in his lyrics, Bob Dylan's lyrics, James Brown's feet dancing. And so I get messages. And today, as I was listening to you, the song that's perhaps been my anthem in the period since the onset of the pandemic was performed by Teddy Pendergrass when he was a member of Harold Melvin and the Blue Notes. And the song that reminds me of you goes like this, "Wake up, everybody. No more sleeping in bed. No more backward thinking. Time for thinking ahead. The world has changed so very much from what it used to be. And now there's so much hatred, war, and poverty. Wake up, all the teachers, time to teach a new way. Maybe then they'll listen to what you have to say. Because they're the ones who are coming up and the world is in their hands. When you teach the children, teach them the very best you can."

Norman, you are a great teacher to my young scholars. Through your example, through your insights. And that wake up call that you represent is a tremendous gift. And I sat in that church, Riverside Church, where Dr. King delivered that speech last Saturday. And when we finished, when we gone through the debate, when we'd gone through the reverence for Dr. King's courage, and we explored what happened to him and everything else, a gentleman named Brian Courtney Wilson stood up and he sang a song that said, "Fear is no longer welcome." And it was all about how fear had encroached and he had thought it was his friend, but now he realized that fear was no longer welcome in his heart. And what I experience in conversation with you and in listening to you is how you create a pathway for us to walk away, maybe run away, from our fear and embrace something constructive. Thank you for being here today and thank you for the work that you do.

Norman Solomon:

Thanks very much, Rob, and thanks for all you do.

Rob Johnson:

We've got more marches to do together in the coming years. And I look forward to our next chapter where your book, which I won't even foreshadow today, but we can wait with baited breath for the next constellation of insights that you put before us. And we'll fly your articles on Salon. I've seen you published in The Nation. I wanted to chase everybody back to War Made Easy on YouTube, which they can watch for free. But you're waking us all up and those young people are going to benefit from it.

Norman Solomon:

Thanks again, Rob.

Rob Johnson:

Thank you. We'll see you next time. And check out more from the Institute for New Economic Thinking at ineteconomics.org.



Read More